レジュメ：小泉純一郎元首相の｢脱原発発言｣

noticias


現役首相の折、新自由主義の政治路線を突っ走り、日本に大きな禍根を残した小泉純一郎元首相の脱原発発言が注目されて、まだ日が浅い。小泉氏の機を見るに敏な政治体質は、何も変わっていない、さすがである。

今回の｢脱原発発言｣も、はっきりいって信を置けない。しかし、政治力学の舞台は功利主義の世界であり、数の力がものをいう。信義の問題はさておき、この小泉発言が｢風｣にならないとも限らない。その意味で、これを簡単に切り捨てるわけにはいかないし、予断を持って対応するのは危険かもしれない。したがって、これとどう対処すべきか、また利用可能なものかどうかを熟考する必要がある。

そこで、まず、この発言を取り巻く見解の今日までの揺れ動きをマトメてみた。

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■　朝日新聞社週刊誌｢アエラ｣(英訳)

Koizumi's call for nuclear-free Japan raises speculation about his intent

October 02, 2013
By TSUYOSHI SUZUKI/ ASAHI SHIMBUN WEEKLY AERA


Junichiro Koizumi’s huge popularity as prime minister stemmed from views that he was a straight talker unafraid to carry out his policies, even if they created potentially dangerous political enemies.

Despite defections from the Liberal Democratic Party and the rise of “rebels” against him, Koizumi pushed through postal privatization and led the LDP to a sweeping victory in the 2005 Lower House election.

Now, the retired politician has returned to the spotlight by railing against nuclear power and urging Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to move Japan away from its reliance on atomic energy.

Some political sources say Koizumi is simply expressing his true feelings about nuclear power. But others point to a political motive behind this anti-nuclear stance. They say Koizumi may be trying to protect, albeit indirectly, the Abe administration and even the party he once famously vowed to “destroy.”

Abe, who was groomed to be prime minister during the days of the Koizumi administration, appears to be listening.

Koizumi, who was prime minister from 2001 to 2006, stunned an audience on Sept. 24 during a forum in Tokyo’s Roppongi Hills commercial complex commemorating the 50th anniversary of the publication of the business magazine President.

“Since retiring (from politics), I have had more opportunities recently to speak with business leaders rather than Diet members. During such discussions, I often hear comments that Japan cannot grow without any nuclear power plants or that calling for zero nuclear power plants is irresponsible,” Koizumi, 71, said in a speech. “However, I studied what experts have said until now about nuclear energy being safe, clean and inexpensive, and I harbored doubts.

“I wonder if human beings can really control nuclear energy. I have now become an advocate calling for zero nuclear plants and urge politicians to make that decision as quickly as possible.”

A major catalyst for Koizumi’s no-nuclear power stance was a visit to Finland in August, a trip he decided to make after watching a TV documentary immediately after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami triggered the Fukushima nuclear crisis.

The TV program featured various issues related to the final repository in Finland for spent nuclear fuel that would be durable for 100,000 years, the first such facility in the world.

Koizumi began doubting the argument that nuclear energy was safe and inexpensive after learning about the very long time period.

The main objective of his Finland trip was to inspect the Onkalo spent fuel repository, a facility designed to completely seal off highly radioactive waste by digging 400 meters deep into the foundation.

The radioactive materials would become harmless over 100,000 years.

However, it is unclear if the facility can actually withstand such a long passage of time. There is also the question of how to inform people in the distant future about the dangers that lie within the facility.

After listening to the explanation given by experts at the facility site, Koizumi said he became more convinced that Japan should move away from nuclear power generation.

“One cannot fathom a time 100,000 years in the future. Can such a facility ever be built in Japan? I thought it would be impossible,” Koizumi said in his Sept. 24 forum speech. “The first reason why I thought it would be better to have zero nuclear plants is because there is no final repository in Japan. Some people may say it is irresponsible to call for zero nuclear plants, but I think it is even more irresponsible not to have a disposal site for the waste or even any prospect of constructing such a facility.”

The former prime minister also said that Japan, unlike Finland, is frequently hit by earthquakes and tsunami. He said the dangers of natural disasters in Japan fueled his concerns about the nation’s dependence on nuclear energy.

“The Japanese have never knuckled under to natural disasters but have always overcome them to further develop the nation. We are now at a major turning point for creating a recyclable society through energy sources based on natural resources. Opportunity lies in a pinch. That is how we should be looking at the situation,” he said.

A source in the political world who is close to Koizumi said his anti-nuclear stance is not something new.

“During private conversations, Koizumi has for a long time called for a radical move toward no nuclear plants. The Onkalo visit strengthened that conviction,” the source said. “The engineers from nuclear plant manufacturers who accompanied him on the trip initially thought they could convince him with their views. However, after returning to Japan, Koizumi said, ‘I strongly argued for the need to move away from nuclear energy.’”

Although the Finland visit may have been important, Koizumi had indeed made comments about moving away from nuclear energy from shortly after the March 2011 disaster.

In a speech in May 2011, Koizumi called for reducing the nation’s dependence on nuclear energy, saying, “It was wrong for Japan to have spoken up after placing its trust in the safety of nuclear plants.”

Last December, Koizumi, speaking on behalf of an LDP candidate before the Lower House election, said, “Efforts should be made to reduce the number of nuclear plants to zero as much as possible.”

But it was a column that appeared in the Aug. 26 edition of the Mainichi Shimbun that sent shock waves through the political world.

In responding to a senior staff writer, Koizumi said: “If I were to return to being an active politician, I would not have the confidence to convince undecided Diet members about the necessity of nuclear energy. After making various observations, I feel I would be able to convince lawmakers to move in the direction of zero nuclear plants.”

Koizumi continued: “Unless the decision is made now to have zero nuclear plants, it will become more difficult to move toward zero nuclear plants in the future. All the opposition parties now favor zero nuclear plants. This could be done as long as the prime minister made the decision.”

Although four years have passed since he retired from politics, Koizumi maintains high popularity and his comments still have influence.

The source close to Koizumi said: “His comments against nuclear energy are likely due to dissatisfaction at the Abe administration. I believe he wants to strongly lodge a protest against the sharp turn by the administration toward resuming operations at nuclear plants.”

Those in the Abe administration are trying to determine Koizumi’s motives.

“After the Mainichi Shimbun column appeared, we were paying attention to whether others would follow in his footsteps, including his son, Shinjiro, a Lower House member,” a source close to the Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office said. “He does, after all, have an outstanding sense for how the political world operates.”

There are signs that Abe was the one who responded most aggressively to the comments made by Koizumi.

The Abe administration has been pushing for the restarts of nuclear reactors that were shut down after the meltdowns at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant. The prime minister also declared the Fukushima nuclear accident was “under control” at a meeting of the International Olympic Committee in Buenos Aires last month.

But after the IOC awarded Tokyo the 2020 Summer Games, Abe told a news conference on Sept. 7: “We will lower the ratio of nuclear energy. Over the course of about three years, we will make every effort to accelerate the spread of renewable energy sources and promote energy conservation.”

Abe did refer to renewable energy and energy conservation as key issues in his policy address at the Diet in February. But his statements at the news conference about resuming operations at nuclear plants were substantially toned down from his earlier remarks.

An LDP source said: “Koizumi is making those comments while being very aware of their effects. However, rather than trip up Abe, I believe he is only trying to restrain the Abe administration that is moving in the direction (of resuming nuclear plant operations).

“The message Koizumi is sending is that moving too strongly in that direction could hurt the administration, even though it may have high support ratings now. The comments by Koizumi can also serve as a coastal levee of sorts for Abe who faces pressure from lawmakers with close ties to the electric power industry. I believe Abe understands what is happening.”

In any event, Koizumi is not backing away from his no-nukes stance.

“If the government and LDP now came out with a policy of zero nuclear plants, the nation could come together in the creation of a recyclable society unseen in the world,” he said in a speech in Nagoya on Oct. 1. “A large majority of the population now understands that nuclear energy is the most expensive form of power generation.”

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201310020073

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■ New York Times　Editorial

Fukushima Politics

Published: October 14, 2013
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD (New York Times)

(A version of this editorial appears in print on October 15, 2013, on page A26 of the New York edition with the headline: Fukushima Politics .)



“Zero nuclear plants.” With this recent call, Japan’s very popular former prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, is again in the limelight. His bold new stance challenges his protégé, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose policies would restart as many nuclear power plants as possible (now all shut down), and even promote the export of nuclear reactors. Mr. Koizumi deems the pursuit of nuclear power “aimless” and “irresponsible.”

.Japan should welcome Mr. Koizumi’s intervention and begin a healthy debate on the future of nuclear power that has not occurred in the two and a half years since the Fukushima disaster. The Japanese Diet did conduct an independent investigation, which concluded Fukushima to be a man-made disaster. But the investigation did not lead to serious parliamentary debate.

Mr. Koizumi, whose change of views is startling, shows that there is quite a split on the issue in the political class. As a pro-growth prime minister from 2001 to 2006, he was an enthusiastic proponent of cheap and clean nuclear power. Now he declares that it is the most expensive form of energy, citing not only the many billions of dollars needed to clean up Fukushima but also the unknown cost and method of dealing with nuclear waste.

He also criticizes the current government’s assumption that nuclear power is essential for economic growth. Ever the acute reader of political moods, Mr. Koizumi argues that a zero nuclear policy could be cause for a great social movement in a country still gripped by economic gloom after 15 years of deflation.

In the wake of Fukushima, one would think that the Japanese government could not restart nuclear power reactors without firm public support. Not so.

According to opinion polls, the majority of Japanese oppose nuclear power, even among supporters of the Abe government. A poll last week found that 76 percent of those surveyed said they did not think the Fukushima plant was “under control.” The government reckons the earthquake and tsunami that struck Fukushima is a once-in-a-thousand-year occurrence. Yet it also estimates that there is a 60 percent to 70 percent probability of a major earthquake and tsunami hitting the most densely populated coastline within the next 30 years. That coastline, dotted with nuclear power plants, reaches from Tokyo to the southern island of Kyushu.

Prime Minister Abe has been stressing the need to shed the deflation mentality for Japan to lift itself out of economic stagnation. Japan can certainly do with a change in attitude. Mr. Koizumi makes a compelling argument that if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party were to announce a zero nuclear policy, “the nation could come together in the creation of a recyclable society unseen in the world,” and the public mood would rise in an instant.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/opinion/fukushima-politics.html?cpno=1200746581&_r=0

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■　小泉元首相が日本記者クラブで講演 .

プレスクラブ （2013年11月12日）　小泉元首相が日本記者クラブで講演

(videonewscom版 公開日: 2013/11/12）

小泉純一郎 11/12脱原発 日本記者クラブ（IWJ版)


　小泉純一郎元首相が11月12日、日本記者クラブで講演し、「放射性廃棄物の最終処分­場を、原発事故の後に場所を見つけることは不可能」、「郵政民営化の比ではない、壮大­な夢のある事業だ」などと独自の脱原発論を語り、安倍首相にエネルギー政策転換の決断­を迫った。

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■　天木直人のブログ　

はやくも馬脚をあらわした小泉脱原発記者会見
2013年11月13日

　鳴り物入りで行なわれた１２日の小泉元首相の脱原発記者会見は、はからずも小泉脱原発劇場の終わりを意味する記者会見になった。
　脱原発を訴える朝日、毎日、東京各紙は一面トップでこれを大きく取り上げて小泉元首相による脱原発国民運動を起こしたいと思っているようだが、そうはならない。
　なぜか。
　それはもちろん小泉発言が、これまでの繰り返しに終始する無意味なものであったからだ。
　しかしそれ以上に大きな理由がある。
　それは小泉元首相が安倍首相の対中国強硬姿勢をこれ以上ない言葉で称賛したからだ。
　脱原発はもちろんこの国の将来を左右する大きな問題だ。
　しかし、それは日本が直面している大きな問題の一つでしかない。
　日本が抱えている大きな政策課題は、米国に追従して軍事重視の外交･安全保障政策や新自由主義に突き進むのか、国民の生活を優先した平和、共生、アジア重視の日本を取り戻すのか、ということである。
　脱原発はまさしくその試金石の一つなのだ。
　脱原発支持者の中にも対中強硬論者はもちろんいるだろう。
　しかし本物の脱原発支持者が、米国追従の日米論者やＴＰＰ支持の新自由主義者であるはずが無い。
　すなわち小泉元首相は脱原発を唱えるにはもっともふさわしくない人物であることを自らこの記者会見で公言したのだ。
　小泉元首相は大きなドジを踏んだ。
　馬鹿の一つ覚えのように脱原発だけを吠えていればよかったのに、靖国参拝の裏話まで披露して自画自賛した。
　これでは国民運動にはならない。
　国民運動にならない小泉脱原発発言など、もはや何の意味も無い・・・

　この続きはきょうの「天木直人のメールマガジン」で書いています。
Copyright ©2005-2013 www.amakiblog.com

Posted by 天木直人 |

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■　Web: zakzak

小泉元首相、小沢氏が“共闘”の衝撃情報　「原発ゼロ」へ連携の可能性も 　

2013.11.14

★鈴木哲夫の核心リポート

　小泉純一郎元首相の「原発ゼロ」宣言が、永田町を揺るがしている。日本記者クラブで１２日に行われた会見でも、原発再稼働を基本とする安倍晋三政権のエネルギー政策に真正面から異議を唱えた。実は、まったく同じ視点と言葉で、問題を提起していたのが、生活の党の小沢一郎代表だ。かつて二大政党のトップとして激突した天敵が共闘する日は来るのか。政界再編の可能性は。政治ジャーナリストの鈴木哲夫氏が核心に迫った。

　今年４月、私（鈴木）は小沢氏と一対一でじっくり話す機会を得た。衆院選で惨敗し、夏の参院選でも苦戦が予想される中で、小沢氏が何を考えているのかを聞いたのだ。このとき、小沢氏が真っ先に触れたのが、何と原発問題だった。

　「一番の国内問題は原子力だよ。原発。すべてに優先してやるべきだ。これ放ってるんだもんね。信じられない。『バカじゃないか』って感じだ。原発を抱えている限り、日本の将来はない」

　──原発への取り組みは？

　「すべてに優先して他の予算は削ってもいい。国債を発行してもいい。すぐにやるべきだ。被ばくはどんどん進んでる。そして、汚染水が海に流れていっていると僕は見ている。それを平気でいるって信じられない」

　──誰がどうすべきか

　「これは非常時だからリーダーの責任。みんな『もう大丈夫』みたいな話でね。『早く帰れる』って言っているでしょ。あそこはもう帰しちゃいけないんだよ。原子力の記念碑にする以外はない。完全に遮蔽して廃棄物も最終的に置く。そういうことをリーダーが勇気を持って言えない。僕はそうすべきだと思うよ。政治がね、決めればできるんですよ
　小沢氏は４月の時点で、汚染水の問題を指摘していたのだ。その後も、小沢氏は同様の主張を記者会見などで行ってきたが、メディアがこれを大きく伝えることはなく、かき消されていた。

　ただ、小泉氏と小沢氏の主張が重なるとなれば、永田町では「２人が直接会って、『原発ゼロ』へ向けて、何らかの連携を図る可能性も出てきた」（野党幹部）という見方も出てきている。

　こうした観測について、小泉氏がかつて所属した自民党清和政策研究会の幹部は「現時点で、小泉氏が小沢氏と会う可能性はないと思う。そもそも、小泉純一郎の政治行動の原点は『反経世会』だった。首相になってからも、野党で小沢氏が何を仕掛けるのかを常に警戒していたほどだ。その小沢氏とやすやすと会って、というのは考えにくい」と語った。

　一方の小沢氏はどうか。記者会見では、小泉発言に賛意を示しているが、こちらもまた「自分から会うということではない」としている。その背景を、小沢氏周辺が語る。

　「小沢氏は、いま自分がどう見られていて、どういう立場にあるかをよく分かっている。『自分が出ていくことで、話が壊れる可能性がある』とすれば、ここは我慢だと。本人は辛いと思いますが、それしかないと割り切っています。せっかく小泉氏が火をつけて『脱原発』で野党再編が進む可能性が出てきた。ここは水面下で準備をして、会う時期や、合流の具体的な流れが出てくるのをじっと待つと思います」
　小沢氏は、すでに次期衆院選に向けて、生活の党として選挙区の調整などを進めている。「野党再編までは緊張感を持って、戦うマインドをキープし続けることが必要」（同周辺）との姿勢だ。

　では、小泉・小沢両氏による「原発ゼロ」「野党再編」などの会談は実現しないのか。

　「いや、意外に早期実現するかも」

　一度は否定した前出の清和会幹部が、こんな見方も示す。

　「小泉氏の提言は、安倍首相や自民党に対して『いま決断すれば国民から圧倒的な支持を得る』という応援歌でもあったが、安倍首相は早々に否定した。しかも、首相周辺が、小泉発言について『迷惑』『終わった人が何を言っているのか』などと辛辣（しんらつ）なことをいい、それを伝え聞いた小泉氏は相当怒っているらしい。こうなると、あの人は野党に肩入れすることもあり得る。小沢氏と会って、安倍首相をアッと驚かせて、プレッシャーをかけることは十分考えられる」

　また、自民党のベテラン議員もこういう。

　「かつては天敵でも、多くの政治家は晩節になると『最後に何かを残したい』と思うようになる。政治家人生の最後に突き抜けるんだな。そうなると、小泉氏も小沢氏も『原発ゼロで一緒にやろうか』と。そういう心境になるものだ。現に、小泉氏は周囲に『本舞台で最後に何が残せるか』といい、小沢氏は『最後に私（わたくし）を捨てる』と言い出しているようだ。彼らの動きを甘く見ない方がいい。同じく『反原発』の細川護煕元首相も合わせて３人が並べばインパクトはある。野党再編の流れができる」

　小泉発言が引き起こす永田町のうねりは、まだまだ収まりそうにない。

http://www.zakzak.co.jp/society/politics/news/20131114/plt1311140724002-n1.htm
http://www.zakzak.co.jp/society/politics/news/20131114/plt1311140724002-n2.htm
http://www.zakzak.co.jp/society/politics/news/20131114/plt1311140724002-n3.htm


テーマとは関係ありませんが、日本の秋の風景。日本の秋は美しい！



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